By Danny Quah, Dean and Li Ka Shing Professor of Economics at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, and Member of SAGE’s Academic Committee

  Oct 5, 2024 — Lee Kun Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore (Working Paper)

 
ABSTRACT: It is commonly believed that two opposing dynamics have helped provide balance for China’s place in the international system over the last six decades. The first is coalescence, associated with economics; the second, fragmentation, associated with geopolitics. This paper argues that, contrary to conventional wisdom, economic and geopolitical forces have worked, not in opposition, but with each other in calibrating China’s place in world order. Initially, both economics and geopolitics drove coalescence; later, both drove fragmentation. In that latter fragmentation phase, however, this collinearity of the two dynamics means there is no balance of opposing forces to maintain equilibrium in the international system. New mechanisms will be needed to restore balance. This paper proposes a mix of (a) seeking inadvertent cooperation; (b) nudging Great Powers away from gridlock; and (c) anchoring the international system on pathfinder multilateralism, or a dynamically evolving open and inclusive plurilateralism.

KEYWORDS: Coalescence; Convergence; Epic Fail; Fragmentation; Inadvertent Cooperation; Pathfinder Multilateralism; Zero-Sum
 
Read More: https://dannyquah.github.io/Storage/2024.10-Danny.Quah-Chinas-Rise-International-Economic-Order.pdf